Can you predict how the stock market will react to certain news, posts, and conversations published online? Knowing how the financial market will behave can give you a competitive advantage and help avoid losses. An unexpected ally in predicting the changes in the stock prices are social media. Online news travels fast, making the stock market exchange even more susceptible to rapid changes.
If you look for an extreme example of how social media influences stock market, take a look at Kylie Jenners’ tweet about Snapchat.
Shortly after the message was posted online, the price of Snap, Snapchat parent company, fell by 8.5 percent.
Some players were able to benefit from the social media turmoil, The Big Short-style, and made $163 million.
All of that fuzz was based on one tweet with negative sentiment.
Imaging what could have been done, if you knew about the tweet moments after it was posted online. You could’ve benefited from the knowledge in many ways – either selling the stocks before it all hits the fan or buying the stocks at a discount price.
That’s the power of sentiment analysis of online mentions.
This example is consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. According to the hypothesis:
stock market prices are largely driven by new information and follow a random walk pattern.
Sentiment analysis is a perfect addition to all technical parameters you use to assess stock market performance.
Sentiment analysis has an effect on short-term price fluctuations.
Let’s crack the sentiment analysis for stock market.
Here’s what’s ahead of us today:
What is market sentiment?
The rise of social media platforms gave many people space to express their opinions. Everybody can discuss whatever topic they feel comfortable with, no matter whether they are experts in the field or not.
The development of smartphones, cellular networks, and widely available WiFi, made it easy for content to spread.
Today, information (also fake news and rumours) can travel with the speed of light, attracting attention of investors around the globe.
The amount of information and the speed at which the information online spread, can have both a positive and negative effects on the price changes of stocks.
Including market sentiment in the analysis of stock portfolio will help you play the odds in your favour.
How does sentiment analysis work?
Now that you know how to set up a project, let’s take a look at how sentiment analysis works.
After all, the algorithm is going to be one of the factors in your decision-making process. It’s important to understand how it works and how reliable the sentiment analytics is.
The old approach to sentiment analysis
Sentiment analysis used to be a binary solution — sentiment analysis tools would detect certain words and attached sentiment.
The solution had many drawbacks, and didn’t always assign right sentiment for the right mentions. It could have happened that an online post with positive sentiment is recognised as a negative one.
Another weakness of the binary solution are the language limitations. The algorithm deciphers the languages one by one, making it impossible to assess the results based on families of languages and the similarities between them.
Recent changes in sentiment analysis algorithms
As you can see, sentiment analysis, although very useful, had some serious drawbacks.
It all changed recently.
Sentiment analysis algorithms became more sophisticated and more reliable.
I can show you how sentiment analysis works based on Brand24.
The tool offers a state-of-the-art sentiment analysis algorithm.
The algorithm is based on a deep learning mechanism. The AI works similar to human brain — similar words will have similar sentiment.
Moreover, the tool analyses sentiment based on the families of languages. That not only makes it more accurate, it also allows the tool to analyse sentiment in dialects.
Sentiment analysis is available for more than 100 languages.
Sentiment analysis works both for mentions from news sites and social media mentions.
The social media platform of choice for financial journalists is Twitter. That makes it perfect for media monitoring.
Tweets regarding financial news are short, precise, and logic. These make them perfect for sentiment analysis.
Can market sentiment help predict changes in stock prices?
Does it sound too good to be true?
In the constant news cycle it’s hard to distinguish between well-researched information and an unverified scheme.
You might have some questions about the use of market sentiment to predict changes in stock prices.
Sentiment analysis and stock market is a well-researched problem.
Our intuition tells us that price and sentiment are at least correlated. What we didn’t know is which factor has a primary effect.
Does negative sentiment influence the stock prices? Or is it the other way around — the stock prices increased thus creating positive sentiment?
Applying sentiment analysis to predicting stock market returns has been studied widely by scholars from many universities, including Stanford University and University of London.
Every study confirmed a correlation between sentiment analysis and changes in stock market.
If there’s something to the theory, why not used it to your benefit?
Let’s see how to analyse sentiment quickly and efficiently.
How to monitor sentiment for stock market?
The quickest way to monitor sentiment analysis is to use a media monitoring tool.
I recommend Brand24, one of the most robust media monitoring tools, according to Buffer.
Brand24 collects all publicly available mentions containing your predefined keyword.
Start with creating a project.
The project creation wizard consist of three steps. That seems like a lot, but it’s all to ensure you get the most accurate and relevant results.
In the first step, choose the keywords you want to track.
You can track any keyword you want.
Think about keywords used regularly in the same context of discussion as the companies you’re interested in. That could be the brand’s name, a hashtag used by some commentators on social media, or any other word that will help you collect the mentions you need.
In the last steps, you can specify the language you’d like to monitor and add some additional sources, for example, TripAdvisor. You can skip it, since you want to focus on sentiment analysis.
Let’s see how media monitoring and sentiment analysis work in practice.
I set up a project regarding universal basic income. Brand24 collects all publicly available mentions containing my keywords. The tool analyses the results as well.
That’s why I know that this mention published on Twitter is a negative one.
Brand24 will also collect news from media sites, for example this one, from Fortune.com:
Receiving your sentiment analysis results
When it comes to stock market, time is of the essence. You have to know about new comments right away.
Brand24 offers three types of notifications:
- Slack notifications. If you have a Slack account, I highly recommend connecting your project to one of your channels. You’ll receive a notification every time a new mention lands in your dashboard. You can set up filters and receive only negative mentions or all of them.
- In-app notification. Brand24 offers an app, both for iOS and Android. You can swiftly access your projects.
- Email notifications. You’ll receive an email every time there’s a sudden surge in the number of mentions regarding one of your projects.
When it comes to sentiment analysis for stock market, I believe that Slack notification are the most reliable option, followed by the in-app notifications.
Does Brand24 sound interesting? Give it a spin! Test the tool for free for 14 days. We won’t ask for your credit card number!
Can sentiment analysis bring substantial value to your stock market plan?
It all comes down to money. Is investing in a sentiment analysis tool worth your money and time?
Markets are volatile. Every piece of information can have a positive or negative effect on the stock prices.
Because of the 24-hour news cycle, we’re constantly bombarded with information and data. At some point, it’s almost impossible to stay on top of things and distinguish important news from less relevant.
Media monitoring tool can help you stay on up-to-date. Based on the filters you set up, you’ll receive the news you’re most interested in.
Moreover, the world of social media is unpredictable. Even the most inconspicuous piece of information can snowball into a full-blown crisis.
Sentiment analysis and media monitoring will help you spot this kind of mentions in advance. You’ll be able to benefit from the positive news and shield yourself from the effects of negative ones.
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